LATEST PRESIDENTIAL POLL – AT 9:23 A.M. ET:   The news here is not on the Republican side, which is unformed, but on the Dem side, where Hillary continues to lose steam as more and more comes out about her actual record.  From The Politico: 

Rand Paul and Jeb Bush are top dogs in a wide-open 2016 Republican presidential field, a new poll says.

The Kentucky senator and former Florida governor each received 13 percent of the vote among Republicans and independents that lean right, according to a CNN/ORC International poll released Tuesday. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, came in at 12 percent.

Bush has gained ground since early March, improving by 4 points, while Paul has dropped 3 points in that time.

Other notable marks include former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 10 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 9 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 8 percent.

The poll comes as a potential Republican field might be forming with many contenders but lacking a clear front-runner.

I get the sense that this is about name recognition, and will continue to be so until next year, when the race really gets started.  I'd like to see some other names in the ring, like Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. 

The Dem side:

Democrats, on the other hand, have a familiar name out front — former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who came in with 64 percent of the vote among Democrats and left-leaning independents. Still, that mark is 6 points worse than in January, when she scored 70 percent of the vote in a CNN poll.

COMMENT:  She's still the overwhelming favorite, but declining numbers aren't helping her political image.  If she drops five more points she'll be in the 50s, which is not coronation territory.  Hillary is one of the best-known figures in the country.  Everyone knows her, but almost everything coming out about her is either negative or neutral.  There is no new positive news, nothing about any secret accomplishment.

At $200,000 a speech, Hillary won't elicit much sympathy.  The issue may not be whether she can win the Democratic nomination, but whether she can win a general election against a good, well-organized Republican candidate.  I'd imagine initial polls will show her ahead, but that those polls will narrow rather quickly.

Or, maybe, if her numbers continue to decline, Hillary will decide that grandmotherhood is better than another losing race.

May 9, 2014